New study published in Nature discusses the critical role of air-ice-ocean interactions in shaping Arctic glacier dynamics. The research provides vital insights into the future of mass loss in the rapidly warming Arctic.

“We found that 91% of the glaciers we studied have been retreating significantly across Svalbard since 1985, with the fastest rates happening in recent years, likely caused by extreme climate anomalies,” says Tian Li, from Bristol Glaciology Centre of the University of Bristol, who led the research.

Tian Li, the lead author of the study. Photo by Yi Wang

By analysing 124,919 calving front positions for 149 marine-terminating glaciers using advanced deep learning techniques, the study offers an unparalleled high-resolution view of glacier behaviour over nearly four decades.

“This is the first time that we have examined the glacier calving in Svalbard on such a large scale, thanks to the recent advances in artificial intelligence which enables us to analyze millions of satellite images quickly.”

Marine-terminating glacier in Svalbard. Photo by Peter Prokosch.

The research team found that 62% of these glaciers experienced seasonal cycles in calving front retreats, with immediate responses of glacier retreats to seasonal ocean warming demonstrating clear sensitivity to rising atmospheric and oceanic temperatures.

"While the melting on the glacier surface occurs over a short period in the summer, we see that melting and calving of the glacier fronts into the sea continue well into the autumn, as it takes much longer to cool down the ocean than the atmosphere," says co-author Geir Moholdt from the Norwegian Polar Institute.

In a related study, the Norwegian Polar Institute and its partners have observed an immediate response from glacier retreat to seasonal ocean warming measured with an ocean rig. Together, these results show that Arctic glaciers have a strong sensitivity to rising ocean temperatures, which has not been taken into account in predictions of future glacier changes and contributions to sea level rise.

The new study warns that future calving front retreats are likely to intensify under continued warming, potentially doubling mass loss by 2100. Despite these alarming trends, significant uncertainties remain in predicting the behaviour of marine-terminating glaciers. The team is continuing their work to understand the calving mechanisms for all marine-terminating glaciers across the Arctic.

Contact: Tian Li, email: tian.li@bristol.ac.uk

Full reference: Li, T., Hofer, S., Moholdt, G. et al. Pervasive glacier retreats across Svalbard from 1985 to 2023. Nat Commun 16, 705 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-55948-1